Our model gives Greenville Triumph a 42% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 32% for One Knoxville.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Greenville Triumph have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and One Knoxville have done so in 2 of their last 3.