Our model gives Greenock Morton a 25% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 48% for Dunfermline Athletic.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Greenock Morton have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Dunfermline Athletic have done so in 1 of their last 4.