Our model gives Grecia a 36% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 39% for AD Sarchí.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Grecia have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and AD Sarchí have done so in 1 of their last 2.