Our model gives Grêmio a 51% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Club Bolívar.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Grêmio have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Club Bolívar have done so in 1 of their last 1.