Our model gives Goiás a 48% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Juventude.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Goiás have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Juventude have done so in 0 of their last 4.