Our model gives Goiás a 53% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Avaí.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Goiás have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Avaí have done so in 0 of their last 2.