Our model gives Gneist a 30% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 52% for Vard.

Both teams are projected to score in 69% of simulations, against 31% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gneist have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Vard have done so in 4 of their last 4.