Our model gives Glenavon a 37% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 38% for Ards.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Glenavon have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Ards have done so in 3 of their last 3.