Our model gives Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza a 31% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 39% for Boca Juniors.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Boca Juniors have done so in 3 of their last 6.