Our model gives Gimnasia Concepción a 58% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Tucumán Central.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gimnasia Concepción have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Tucumán Central have done so in 2 of their last 4.