Our model gives Gimnasia Concepción a 59% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 14% for Independiente Chivilcoy.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gimnasia Concepción have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Independiente Chivilcoy have done so in 1 of their last 3.