Our model gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy a 50% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Sarmiento de La Banda.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gimnasia Chivilcoy have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Sarmiento de La Banda have done so in 0 of their last 3.