Our model gives Geel a 41% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Lille.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Geel have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1.