Our model gives Gedania Gdańsk a 43% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Noteć Czarnków.

Both teams are projected to score in 69% of simulations, against 31% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gedania Gdańsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Noteć Czarnków have done so in 2 of their last 3.