Our model gives Gainsborough Trinity a 57% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Workington.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gainsborough Trinity have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Workington have done so in 1 of their last 3.