Our model gives Gagra a 49% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Meshakhte.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Gagra have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Meshakhte have done so in 1 of their last 1.