Our model gives Güemes a 34% chance to win this one, against 34% for a draw and 32% for Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 28% likelihood against 72% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Güemes have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta have done so in 1 of their last 4.