Our model gives Fratria a 66% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Rilski Sportist.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fratria have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Rilski Sportist have done so in 1 of their last 4.