Our model gives Fratria a 61% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fratria have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas have done so in 0 of their last 3.