Our model gives Fratria a 60% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Beroe.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fratria have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Beroe have done so in 0 of their last 3.