Our model gives Fortaleza a 54% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 20% for São Bernardo.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fortaleza have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and São Bernardo have done so in 2 of their last 3.