Our model gives Forfar Athletic a 37% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Stranraer.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Forfar Athletic have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Stranraer have done so in 2 of their last 4.