Our model gives Fluminense a 52% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Independiente Rivadavia.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fluminense have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 6, and Independiente Rivadavia have done so in 3 of their last 5.