Our model gives Flamengo a 63% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 15% for São Paulo.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Flamengo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and São Paulo have done so in 0 of their last 1.