Our model gives FK Riteriai a 17% chance to win this one, against 38% for a draw and 45% for Panevėžys.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Panevėžys have done so in 0 of their last 3.