Our model gives Finn Harps a 26% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 50% for Longford Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Finn Harps have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Longford Town have done so in 3 of their last 4.