Our model gives Figueirense a 50% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Maranhão.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Figueirense have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Maranhão have done so in 1 of their last 2.