Our model gives Ferroviária a 59% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Brusque.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ferroviária have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Brusque have done so in 1 of their last 2.