Our model gives Fernando de la Mora a 34% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 40% for Benjamin Aceval.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fernando de la Mora have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Benjamin Aceval have done so in 2 of their last 4.