Our model gives Fenerbahçe a 65% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Sturm Graz.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fenerbahçe have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Sturm Graz have done so in 0 of their last 5.