Our model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Olympique Lyonnais.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fenerbahçe have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Olympique Lyonnais have done so in 2 of their last 2.