Our model gives Fencibles United a 32% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 48% for Auckland United.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fencibles United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Auckland United have done so in 2 of their last 2.