Our model gives Felgueiras 1932 a 36% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Chaves.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Felgueiras 1932 have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Chaves have done so in 1 of their last 2.