Our model gives FC Twente a 56% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 23% for Qarabağ.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, FC Twente have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Qarabağ have done so in 0 of their last 3.