Our model gives FC Tbilisi a 76% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Iveria.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, FC Tbilisi have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Iveria have done so in 0 of their last 2.