Our model gives Fakel a 15% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 58% for Zenit.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fakel have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Zenit have done so in 3 of their last 4.