Our model gives Fakel a 40% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Orenburg.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fakel have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Orenburg have done so in 3 of their last 5.