Our model gives Fajr Sepasi a 31% chance to win this one, against 37% for a draw and 32% for Aluminium Arak.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 24% likelihood against 76% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fajr Sepasi have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Aluminium Arak have done so in 0 of their last 1.