Our model gives Fagiano Okayama a 50% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Kyoto Sanga.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Kyoto Sanga have done so in 2 of their last 2.