Our model gives FA Šiauliai a 24% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 53% for Panevėžys.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, FA Šiauliai have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Panevėžys have done so in 0 of their last 3.