Our model gives FA Šiauliai a 12% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 70% for Kauno Žalgiris.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, FA Šiauliai have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Kauno Žalgiris have done so in 2 of their last 4.