Our model gives Excelsior a 34% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 42% for Sparta Rotterdam.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Excelsior have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Sparta Rotterdam have done so in 1 of their last 2.