Our model gives Everton a 36% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 38% for Universidad Católica.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Everton have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Universidad Católica have done so in 2 of their last 4.