Our model gives Everton a 27% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 47% for Colo-Colo.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Everton have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Colo-Colo have done so in 1 of their last 1.