Our model gives Estudiantes a 62% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 13% for Barracas Central.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 35% likelihood against 65% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Estudiantes have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5, and Barracas Central have done so in 0 of their last 4.