Our model gives Estrella del Sur a 40% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Victoriano Arenas.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Estrella del Sur have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Victoriano Arenas have done so in 0 of their last 3.