Our model gives Estrella del Sur a 45% chance to win this one, against 34% for a draw and 21% for JJ Urquiza.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 27% likelihood against 73% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Estrella del Sur have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and JJ Urquiza have done so in 0 of their last 3.