Our model gives Estrella del Sur a 52% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 17% for Deportivo Paraguayo.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Estrella del Sur have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Deportivo Paraguayo have done so in 0 of their last 1.