Our model gives Esteghlal a 36% chance to win this one, against 36% for a draw and 27% for Sepahan.

Both teams are projected to score in 36% of simulations, against 64% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 27% likelihood against 73% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Esteghlal have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Sepahan have done so in 0 of their last 1.