Our model gives Esteghlal a 43% chance to win this one, against 34% for a draw and 23% for Mes Shahr-e Babak.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 28% likelihood against 72% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Esteghlal have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Mes Shahr-e Babak have done so in 1 of their last 1.